90 Million Workers Won't Be
Needed By 2020, Study Says
The Huffington Post | By Bonnie Kavoussi
Tens of
millions of people worldwide will be condemned to long-term joblessness unless
global leaders make significant changes to address unemployment and worker
training, according to a new study.
Between
90 and 95 million low-skill workers -- or 2.6 percent of the global workforce
-- will not be needed by employers by 2020 and will be vulnerable to permanent
joblessness, according to a report released Thursday by the McKinsey Global
Institute.
Meanwhile,
employers around the world will need nearly 45 million more medium-skill
workers (with secondary school and vocational training) and 38 to 40 million
more high-skill workers (with a college education) than will be available,
according to the study.
The
rapid growth in the number of low-skill workers, relative to employers' demand
for them, is likely to create even more income inequality around the world, the
study said.
"The
polarization of incomes between high- and low-skill workers could become even
more pronounced, slowing the advance in national living standards, and
increasing public-sector burdens and social tensions," the study said.
"In some advanced economies, less-skilled workers could very well grow up
poorer than their parents, in real terms."
The world already is suffering from growing joblessness. Six percent of workers worldwide are unemployed, according to the International Labour Office.
The
McKinsey study called for "decisive action by policy makers and
businesses" to address unemployment concerns. It said that developed
countries can avoid a shortage of high-skill workers by more than doubling
those obtaining college and postgraduate education, allowing more high-skill
workers to immigrate to the countries where they are needed, retraining more
mid-career workers, and guiding more college students to job-relevant training.
But even those efforts might leave 20 to 23 million lower-skill workers in
danger of permanent joblessness.
The
study projected that through 2030, China and India will add the most
college-educated workers to the labor force.
For
developing countries to combat long-term joblessness, the study said, they need
to double or triple the growth rate of the capacity of their high schools and
vocational schools, double or triple their labor-intensive exports, and double
or triple their investment in infrastructure and housing construction to employ
lower-skill workers.
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